GM to build and sell hybrid cars in Canada ... cheaper!

"dh" > wrote in message
om...
>
> Another reason for buying a hybrid, of course, is that you do the sort of
> driving that will be more economical with a hybrid. That would be heavey
> stop-and-go use for many miles over the course of a year. If you have a
bad
> commute, a hybrid may be the car for you.
>

Or better yet, move closer to your job, that is what a lot of people do and
it works pretty well. It even helps to save the planet since your driving
less.

> Yet another valid reason for buying a hybrid is that you expect the price
of
> gas to rise to the point where driving a hybid will be economical.
>

But you see that won't ever really happen, not for a long long time. The
reason
is that if the price goes up, it makes stuff like oil shale become
economically
viable to recover oil from. And we have gobs more oil tied up in reserves
that
are a bit more expensive to recover oil from than just drill and hold out a
bucket.

So yes, the price could go up another 100%. But if it went up something
really
significant, like 1000%, then the other uneconomically viable reserves would
suddenly become viable and go into production, and the price increase would
halt.

>
> Or you just want to own something different.
>

Try a motorcycle or a bicycle.

>
> And, of course, owning a car and being able to sell it a couple of years
> later for nearly what you paid is rather nice, too. Resale value counts
for
> the average working stiff, too.
>

They only have high resale value now because most owners are still under
the original, long, factory warranty so a buyer knows that if something
major is wrong with it when they buy it, they can get it fixed for free.

> And, while many people do take a critical look at the price and the
forecast
> savings and do decide to buy a convenitional car, well they came into the
> hybrid's dealership to look, didn't they? Did they stay to buy the
> conventional vehicle? What's it worth to get a prospect in the door?
>

That is not how an increasing number of people buy new cars these days.
Gone
are the days that most car buyers would go down to the local dealership
and just spend the day being sold to. More and more of them are doing their
homework on the Internet first and have a clear idea of exactly what they
want before walking in the dealership's door.

> I've checked the auto ads in the local paper the last few weeks running.
> The local Toyota dealers run no ads in the local paper. I wonder why?
Must
> be that they get a steady stream of visitors without advertising. How can
> that be?
>

Maybe they have done some analysis of their newspaper ad buys and found out
that those ads don't generate enough sales to make them worthwhile. If I
was
a car dealer I'd probably be putting most of my ad dollars into tv ads and
radio,
not newspapers.

> If we check AutoNews.com, we find that, in 2005, the Toyota Prius outsold:
> the Saturn Ion; the Buick LaCrosse; all Mercedes cars combined; the Dodge
> Magnum; all Lincoln-branded cars combined; the Mazda 3; the Mazda 6; all
the
> Saab cars combined; the Nissan Maxima; all Mitsubishi cars combined; the
VW
> Jetta; the VW Beetle and the VW Passat combined; the Monte Carlo and the
HHR
> combined; and, I'll stop here, all the Volvo cars combined. I expect the
VP
> that launched a "specialty" car that outsold all those would find that he
> wasn't in immediate danger of dismissal.
>

So much for wanting to own something different. Isn't it amazing that
a Prius proponent such as yourself can say on one hand the Prius is
great because everyone is buying them, and on the other hand say the
Prius is great because hardly anyone is buying them?

> What's your source for "four to seven thousand dollars" for the battery
> pack, anyway? I heard it was well under two thousand and Toyota warrants
it
> for a long time, besides. Common sense says it's not all that much, as
such
> a "four to seven" thousand dollar part would drive the purchase price of
the
> car way up. At $21,000, the Prius isn't really all that expensive. It's
> about $5K more than a Corolla but it has more features and I believe it's
> more comfortable. The base MSRP on the conventionally powered and largely
> unimaginative (still OHV? That is so Fifties) Impala is almost that much,
> anyway:
> http://www.edmunds.com/new/2006/chev...ala/index.html
>
> I'll bet that the operating cost on the Prius is lower than that of the
> Impala, anyway.

You see this is the problem, "you bet" You frankly don't know, and you
don't know because the Prius hasn't been out that long.

once we see a lot of these Priuses hitting 200K miles we will have enough
data to make a judgement as to whether the operating cost of the Prius is
lower over the lifespan of the car, than the operating cost of the regular
car..

Ted

"Ted Mittelstaedt" > wrote in message
...
>
> "dh" > wrote in message
> om...
> >
> > Another reason for buying a hybrid, of course, is that you do the sort
of
> > driving that will be more economical with a hybrid. That would be
heavey
> > stop-and-go use for many miles over the course of a year. If you have a
> bad
> > commute, a hybrid may be the car for you.

> Or better yet, move closer to your job, that is what a lot of people do
and
> it works pretty well. It even helps to save the planet since your driving
> less.

Absolutely. I would not recommend we rely on hybrids alone to cut
greenhouse gases, reduce oil consumption, etc. They're just one element.

> > Yet another valid reason for buying a hybrid is that you expect the
price
> of
> > gas to rise to the point where driving a hybid will be economical.
> >
> But you see that won't ever really happen, not for a long long time. The
> reason
> is that if the price goes up, it makes stuff like oil shale become
> economically
> viable to recover oil from. And we have gobs more oil tied up in reserves
> that
> are a bit more expensive to recover oil from than just drill and hold out
a
> bucket.

While there are reserves that are incrementally more expensive, there are
other reasons gas prices could spike - and spike hard. Look at the recent
refinery attack in Saudi Arabia, or consider the situation in Nigeria. A
big chunk of the world's production can be removed from the market
overnight. Adding new production takes time.

> So yes, the price could go up another 100%. But if it went up something
> really
> significant, like 1000%, then the other uneconomically viable reserves
would
> suddenly become viable and go into production, and the price increase
would
> halt.
>
> > Or you just want to own something different.
>
> Try a motorcycle or a bicycle.
>

I have a bike. I do a fair chunk of my commute by bike or on foot every
year.

> >
> > And, of course, owning a car and being able to sell it a couple of years
> > later for nearly what you paid is rather nice, too. Resale value counts
> for
> > the average working stiff, too.
>
> They only have high resale value now because most owners are still under
> the original, long, factory warranty so a buyer knows that if something
> major is wrong with it when they buy it, they can get it fixed for free.
>

That may be true. And, as more hybrids come on the market, more will be
available for resale. The early adopters may well do far better than later
buyers.

Consumer Reports mentioned that, so far, the Toyota hybrids seem to have no
worse repair records than other Toyotas. That's pretty good and in the long
haul will probably help acceptance of hybrids. I would hope Ford and GM do
as well.

> > And, while many people do take a critical look at the price and the
> forecast
> > savings and do decide to buy a convenitional car, well they came into
the
> > hybrid's dealership to look, didn't they? Did they stay to buy the
> > conventional vehicle? What's it worth to get a prospect in the door?
> >
>
> That is not how an increasing number of people buy new cars these days.
> Gone
> are the days that most car buyers would go down to the local dealership
> and just spend the day being sold to. More and more of them are doing
their
> homework on the Internet first and have a clear idea of exactly what they
> want before walking in the dealership's door.
>

The internet does not offer the driving experience. If you go drive the car
and don't like it, then what do you do? Why does auto racing attract car
manufacturers? Because you buy a NASCAR vehicle when you go into the
showroom? No. It's marketing. Having an exciting product line helps pull
in buyers.

> > I've checked the auto ads in the local paper the last few weeks running.
> > The local Toyota dealers run no ads in the local paper. I wonder why?
> Must
> > be that they get a steady stream of visitors without advertising. How
can
> > that be?
> >
>
> Maybe they have done some analysis of their newspaper ad buys and found
out
> that those ads don't generate enough sales to make them worthwhile. If I
> was
> a car dealer I'd probably be putting most of my ad dollars into tv ads and
> radio,
> not newspapers.
>

They've made a unque decision, then, as the other auto dealers do advertise.
There's a whole section of auto ads. Half the space is classifieds and the
other half is big dealer ads.

> > If we check AutoNews.com, we find that, in 2005, the Toyota Prius
outsold:
> > the Saturn Ion; the Buick LaCrosse; all Mercedes cars combined; the
Dodge
> > Magnum; all Lincoln-branded cars combined; the Mazda 3; the Mazda 6; all
> the
> > Saab cars combined; the Nissan Maxima; all Mitsubishi cars combined; the
> VW
> > Jetta; the VW Beetle and the VW Passat combined; the Monte Carlo and the
> HHR
> > combined; and, I'll stop here, all the Volvo cars combined. I expect
the
> VP
> > that launched a "specialty" car that outsold all those would find that
he
> > wasn't in immediate danger of dismissal.
> >
>
> So much for wanting to own something different. Isn't it amazing that
> a Prius proponent such as yourself can say on one hand the Prius is
> great because everyone is buying them, and on the other hand say the
> Prius is great because hardly anyone is buying them?
>

I offered that as one possible reason. For some, it will be different
enough.

> > What's your source for "four to seven thousand dollars" for the battery
> > pack, anyway? I heard it was well under two thousand and Toyota
warrants
> it
> > for a long time, besides. Common sense says it's not all that much, as
> such
> > a "four to seven" thousand dollar part would drive the purchase price of
> the
> > car way up. At $21,000, the Prius isn't really all that expensive.
It's
> > about $5K more than a Corolla but it has more features and I believe
it's
> > more comfortable. The base MSRP on the conventionally powered and
largely
> > unimaginative (still OHV? That is so Fifties) Impala is almost that
much,
> > anyway:
> > http://www.edmunds.com/new/2006/chev...ala/index.html
> >
> > I'll bet that the operating cost on the Prius is lower than that of the
> > Impala, anyway.
>
> You see this is the problem, "you bet" You frankly don't know, and you
> don't know because the Prius hasn't been out that long.
>

True. But I don't mind betting on Toyota reliability, economy and resale.
Right now, I've got three bets on Toyota in my driveway.

> once we see a lot of these Priuses hitting 200K miles we will have enough
> data to make a judgement as to whether the operating cost of the Prius is
> lower over the lifespan of the car, than the operating cost of the regular
> car..
> Ted

One thing that does last longer is the brakes. Anectdogal evidence suggest
that the regenerative braking on the Toyota means the conventional brakes
are lasting much longer. Stands to reason.

We'll see.


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"Ted Mittelstaedt" > wrote in message
...
>
> "dh" > wrote in message
> om...
> >
> > While there are reserves that are incrementally more expensive, there
are
> > other reasons gas prices could spike - and spike hard. Look at the
recent
> > refinery attack in Saudi Arabia, or consider the situation in Nigeria.
A
> > big chunk of the world's production can be removed from the market
> > overnight. Adding new production takes time.
> >
> But if the gas prices do spike hard, (the word spike means temporary,
> here) then a lot of people can go without driving for a short time.
>

Spike is usually temporary but there's lots of ways that it might not be.
Violence could take out a lot of production in a hurry and it could be
difficult to repair the damage. Look at Iraq. I don't believe they're
pumping as much oil now as they did in 2000.

I'd question your assertion that a "lot of people" can go without driving
for a short time. Price hikes produce ****ing and moaning but little change
in habits. During the last round of price hikes, nobody in my neighborhood
asked if I'd like to car-pool.

I saw something authoritative on this and can't find it. I'll keep looking.
You would find it interesting.

> For example a lot of pundits predicted massive gas hikes due to Katrina.
> What they forgot was that while Katrina took a lot of refinery capacity
> offline and under normal circumstances would have created a price spike,
> that price spike was offset by the large numbers of people who didn't
> drive (because their cars were flooded out) and thus wern't buying gas
> for a short time. As a result while there was some local gouging, it
> did not happen the way the naysayers predicted.
>
> It's already been observed that US gas consumption is pretty elastic.
> Raise prices and oil usage drops, raise them more and it drops more,
> people set their thermostats down, use less power, etc. By contrast
> drop prices and people drive a lot more.
>
> The other thing is that a price spike doesen't cause a lot of people
> to run out and buy new economy vehicles. The price has to go way up
> and stay way up for 6 months to a year before people will start changing
> their buying habits.

The source I'm searching for described gas consumption as "inelastic."
After all, if it was very elastic (as economists would use the term), could
prices suddenly rise, due to small disruptions? I don't think so.

If gas suddenly fell to $1/gallon, do you really think people would drive
much more? I doubt it. You're describing a situation where people would
suddenly start taking pleasure drives just because gas was cheap or shopping
further away because gas was cheap. I don't see that happening. Among
other things, driving takes too much time to be done entirely casually.
Now, if gas prices fell far enough, people might have enough extra money in
their pockets to do more things and more miles might be driven in support of
these activities but I think we're looking at something marginal.

>
> >
> > Consumer Reports mentioned that, so far, the Toyota hybrids seem to have
> no
> > worse repair records than other Toyotas. That's pretty good and in the
> long
> > haul will probably help acceptance of hybrids. I would hope Ford and
GM
> do
> > as well.
> >
>
[snip - some good stuff but I don't have all that much time today]

> Exactly. Let's not get too wound up that hybrids are the greatest thing
> since
> sliced bread until we have the TCO in hand. And that's not going to be
for
> another decade at least.
>

OK, I won't get too hot'n'bothered. But, one of the values of the current
hybrids is that they test these things in the real world. And one of the
advantages to Toyota is that in 2008 (or so) when GM brings out their
hybrid, Toyota has mindshare and experience. First-year GM hybrid vs 4th
Generation Toyota?

> Frankly I'm looking forward to being able to do a full electric conversion
> of
> a Prius in a decade. I'll pick up one where the conventional gasoline
> engine
> in it is shot, for $200 or so. That to me has always made a lot more
sense
> than any hybrid. If Toyota really knew what they were doing they would
> have offered as an option a non hybrid Prius, full electric, charge from
> the garage outlet. After all most of the work of designing the car is
> complete,
> all you would need to do is design bracketry for the extra batteries and a
> charger that could plug into a 220v outlet, and a different computer
program
> for the computer.
>
> Ted

An incremental improvement in battery technology (llike merely doubling the
storage in the existing space) would mean that just adding a plug to the
front-end of the hybrid for overnight charging would allow me to do my
commute and maybe all my daily errands without running the hybrid engine at
all. No gas at all until you have driven more than X miles without an
overnight charge. This could almost be a field upgrade (swap in new,
higher-density battery pack and implant add-on charger for house current
input). (**)

If I understand correctly, one of the problems with electric cars is the
charging rate. With gasoline, it's easy to pour enough ergs(*) into the car
in 5 minutes to drive for 4 to 6 hours. With house-current charging,
putting enough ergs into the car to drive 6 hours takes a lot longer. If
the new tech vehicle is your only vehicle, you're going to want something
with long-range capability that can be "refueled" quickly, so that you don't
find yourself taking an hour to recharge every few hours on a long trip.
Gasoline (or ethanol or diesel) makes this relatively easy.


(*) Perhaps I really mean joules... it's been a long time since physics and
chemistry.
(**) a little extra product feature might be a slightly smarter control
system that senses when you're on the way home and lets the traction battery
drain almost completely, on the assumption you'll plug in at the end of the
trip.


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