GT4 - A First Look

On Thu, 10 Mar 2005 17:54:42 GMT, "Steve Smith"
> wrote:

>That puts the figure at about 10 million. That's
>nothing to sneeze at...and it's a market that will continue to grow.

But when you take that analysis one step further, and delve into how
many of that 10% will choose to buy online games vs. unconnected ones
.... it really is a trivial dent in sales. Trust me, I've done the
numbers again and again and there is no business case for a
*developer* to support online (for a publisher, looking to the
longterm gains, that's a different question).

On Sat, 05 Mar 2005 16:32:06 GMT, Joe62 > wrote:

>Just found one actually:
>
>http://gear.ign.com/articles/561/561...html?fromint=1
>
>No idea how good it is but the review sounds allright.

Well I'm afraid I have to report that I'm not too impressed.

1) Not enough travel on the triggers. Why they wouldn't just model
them after a good design like the XBox triggers I can't imagine. They
have about half that travel and so feel more like "really good analog
buttons" than true triggers. Better than the PS2 buttons, but not as
good as they good be.

2) One of the triggers is busted right out of the box. The spring-back
isn't right, so it doesn't push back out to the rest position when you
let go of it. Shoddy, shoddy workmanship.

The latter is particularly annoying, since I had to order the thing
online it's going to be a huge hassle to return it, probably not worth
my effort. So unless Thrustmaster is bascially willing to replace it
on my word that it's broken, they have lost me as a customer,
permanently.

On Fri, 11 Mar 2005 19:46:14 GMT, Joe62
> wrote:

>But when you take that analysis one step further, and delve into how
>many of that 10% will choose to buy online games vs. unconnected ones
>... it really is a trivial dent in sales.

Here's an example of this analysis:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content...e=pub&aid=3725

As Iwata points out, when Sony took Hot Shots Golf online it actually
sold *less* than previous versions. This is not an isolated case.
We've done an analysis of every game sold in North America over the
last 3 years. Outside of exceptions like Halo 2, online does nothing
for your sales, and sucks up tremendous amounts of development
resources.

Why would a developer ignore a feature the absence of which would be a
deal-breaker for the publisher? Self-immolation is cheaper, flashier.

"Joe62" > wrote in message
...
> On Thu, 10 Mar 2005 17:54:42 GMT, "Steve Smith"
> > wrote:
>
> >That puts the figure at about 10 million. That's
> >nothing to sneeze at...and it's a market that will continue to grow.
>
> But when you take that analysis one step further, and delve into how
> many of that 10% will choose to buy online games vs. unconnected ones
> ... it really is a trivial dent in sales. Trust me, I've done the
> numbers again and again and there is no business case for a
> *developer* to support online (for a publisher, looking to the
> longterm gains, that's a different question).

Look to the source. Nintendo is sucking hind tit online. Even Sony, so
conspiculously in disarray that they appointed a ****** like Howie Stringer
to run the company (if I was Kaz Yamauchi, I woulda bought Sony and put Ken
Kutaragi in charge) can't make out in a whorehouse with a fist fulla
fifties, Look at what they've done with the PSX (perfect for here, but DOA
in the clueless home market...so they killed it!). Go to Japan and you'll
see why they don't "get" online. Or, cheaper, read the WSJ...not
gamesindustry.biz....sheesh!

Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it ain't gonna happen. Every
year in the early 80s, Info Age would proclaim THIS was the year of the
LAN...and every year the prediction proved premature. But LANs are now
bigger than anybody ever dared predict.

"Joe62" > wrote in message
...
> On Fri, 11 Mar 2005 19:46:14 GMT, Joe62
> > wrote:
>
> >But when you take that analysis one step further, and delve into how
> >many of that 10% will choose to buy online games vs. unconnected ones
> >... it really is a trivial dent in sales.
>
> Here's an example of this analysis:
>
> http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content...e=pub&aid=3725
>
> As Iwata points out, when Sony took Hot Shots Golf online it actually
> sold *less* than previous versions. This is not an isolated case.
> We've done an analysis of every game sold in North America over the
> last 3 years. Outside of exceptions like Halo 2, online does nothing
> for your sales, and sucks up tremendous amounts of development
> resources.

I'm fairly certain that the drop off in sales of Hot Shots Golf wasn't
due to the inclusion of online play. Do you honestly believe that
consumers picked up the package and said "online play? i'm not gonna
buy it"? Sony hasn't made online play a priority for the PS2. The
design of the hardware, the design of their online network
(non-existant). The PS2 is not designed for online play. The growth
of XBox Live shows that online play is the future of video games. As
broadband continues to grow, so to will online gaming. It's inevitable.

"Steve Smith" > wrote:

>Look to the source. Nintendo is sucking hind tit online.

Nope. They are developing the best online technology when the market's
ready for it. Gamecube-next will have wireless WIFI online play via a
free service. More the point though, our own analysis of sales data
confirms his point - generally, at this point, people don't want
online games.

>Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it ain't gonna happen.

I agree; it will be a viable market once everyone's consoles and
living rooms have easy, cheap access to the net (Nintendo's WIFI
support is a large step in this direction). I'm just saying that
currently, it makes no economic sense for a developer to spend money
on this feature. The GT team belatedly came to the same logical
conclusion ... and would have no doubt come to it sooner if not for
pressure from Sony.

Joe62

" > wrote:

>I'm fairly certain that the drop off in sales of Hot Shots Golf wasn't
>due to the inclusion of online play. Do you honestly believe that
>consumers picked up the package and said "online play? i'm not gonna
>buy it"?

Why did the sales drop off then? It wasn't the first sequel. The
series sold well year after year. It's not an unknown phenomenon for
online support to hurt sales if the customers perceive that either the
online or the offline game has suffered for lack of focus. Which is
actually the impression I get reading this review:

http://ps2.gamespy.com/playstation-2.../540010p1.html

>The growth
>of XBox Live shows that online play is the future of video games. As
>broadband continues to grow, so to will online gaming. It's inevitable.

I agree that it will eventually be a viable market. To call it "the
future of video games" is pure hyperbole however. Many people will
never want to play online games.

Joe62

"Steve Smith" > wrote:

>Why would a developer ignore a feature the absence of which would be a
>deal-breaker for the publisher?

Publisher's were hot on on-line about a year ago. They have also
analyzed the numbers and since wised up (outside of Sony and Microsoft
themselves of course, in which case year the pressure for online
support is much greater). If the publisher's did want it, and were
willing to pay for it, of course we'd be happy to implement it. When
they see how much it costs and what it means for sales though, they
are the ones who want to cut it.

Joe62

And I suppose if Oldsmobile had asked you in 1939 whether they should put
self-starters in automobiles, you would have taken a horse & buggy Luddite
view that electric gizmos like that were just more tinfoil in yer hat.
After all, most people *like* spinning a hand crank - it builds strength &
character.

"Joe62" > wrote in message
...
> " > wrote:
>
> >I'm fairly certain that the drop off in sales of Hot Shots Golf wasn't
> >due to the inclusion of online play. Do you honestly believe that
> >consumers picked up the package and said "online play? i'm not gonna
> >buy it"?
>
> Why did the sales drop off then? It wasn't the first sequel. The
> series sold well year after year. It's not an unknown phenomenon for
> online support to hurt sales if the customers perceive that either the
> online or the offline game has suffered for lack of focus. Which is
> actually the impression I get reading this review:
>
> http://ps2.gamespy.com/playstation-2.../540010p1.html
>
> >The growth
> >of XBox Live shows that online play is the future of video games. As
> >broadband continues to grow, so to will online gaming. It's inevitable.
>
> I agree that it will eventually be a viable market. To call it "the
> future of video games" is pure hyperbole however. Many people will
> never want to play online games.
>
> Joe62