Could Rising Gas Prices Kill the Suburbs?

"Scott en Aztlán" > wrote in message
...
> http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...42526&GT1=8479
>
> Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that
> high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute
> prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live in
> central cities and create a push for more public transportation.

Most of the jobs are in the suburbs not the central city. The statement
makes no sense.

We have already been through the minimum price per gallon before there would
be a lot of people using transit. The minimum prices was $13 per gallon
with a lot of assumptions to push that number as low as possible.

The real number is probably over $20 per gallon. At these prices the world
will be gushing with alternative fuels and even Hugh surpluses of oil. We
are already seen major increases in oil coming on line responding to $70 per
barrel oil

The writer also assumes that Government will not have to radically increase
transit fares if the price of gasoline goes way up. They will just pay for
the extra cost with the vast surpluses all local Governments have :-)
>
> City of the futu here, soon
> Gabriel already sees change in car-centric Los Angeles, where the
> commuter culture has for years pushed mile upon mile of city sprawl
> into neighboring towns and farmland. But now Gabriel says KB Home is
> leading the way to a new type of neighborhood.
>
> Once thought of as a first-home builder, KB in June launched KB Urban
> to develop high-density, mixed-use projects. The first such project
> will be a 2-million-square-foot complex of luxury hotels and private
> residences built in partnership with hotelier Marriott International
> and sports-and-entertainment company AEG, owner of L.A.'s Staples
> Center. This kind of development, Gabriel believes, will help make
> L.A. a denser, European-type central city. It is celebrated in a 2004
> film called "The End of Suburbia."

The housing segment is selling land at this time, not acquiring it. Again
the writer is living in their on self fabricated fantasy world.

The other fantasy world of the writer is that Government will pay for all
the large increases in fuel consumption for transit and not raise taxes or
fares. The magic world of Government having unlimited amounts of money
with no need to raise more money.

And of course the transit fantasy people keep grasping at straws desperately
that their dying fantasy will some how magically be resurrected to rule the
earth again.

"Jack May" > wrote in message
. ..
>
> "Scott en Aztlán" > wrote in message
> ...
> >
http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...ntid=742526&GT
1=8479
> >
> > Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that
> > high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute
> > prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live in
> > central cities and create a push for more public transportation.
>
> Most of the jobs are in the suburbs not the central city. The statement
> makes no sense.
>

Since when do newspaper reporters even try to understand FActs?



> We have already been through the minimum price per gallon before there
would
> be a lot of people using transit. The minimum prices was $13 per gallon
> with a lot of assumptions to push that number as low as possible.
>
> The real number is probably over $20 per gallon. At these prices the
world
> will be gushing with alternative fuels and even Hugh surpluses of oil.
We
> are already seen major increases in oil coming on line responding to $70
per
> barrel oil
>
> The writer also assumes that Government will not have to radically
increase
> transit fares if the price of gasoline goes way up. They will just pay
for
> the extra cost with the vast surpluses all local Governments have :-)
> >
> > City of the futu here, soon
> > Gabriel already sees change in car-centric Los Angeles, where the
> > commuter culture has for years pushed mile upon mile of city sprawl
> > into neighboring towns and farmland. But now Gabriel says KB Home is
> > leading the way to a new type of neighborhood.
> >
> > Once thought of as a first-home builder, KB in June launched KB Urban
> > to develop high-density, mixed-use projects. The first such project
> > will be a 2-million-square-foot complex of luxury hotels and private
> > residences built in partnership with hotelier Marriott International
> > and sports-and-entertainment company AEG, owner of L.A.'s Staples
> > Center. This kind of development, Gabriel believes, will help make
> > L.A. a denser, European-type central city. It is celebrated in a 2004
> > film called "The End of Suburbia."
>
> The housing segment is selling land at this time, not acquiring it. Again
> the writer is living in their on self fabricated fantasy world.
>
> The other fantasy world of the writer is that Government will pay for all
> the large increases in fuel consumption for transit and not raise taxes or
> fares. The magic world of Government having unlimited amounts of money
> with no need to raise more money.
>
> And of course the transit fantasy people keep grasping at straws
desperately
> that their dying fantasy will some how magically be resurrected to rule
the
> earth again.
>
>
>
>
>

I think it was the builder giving the author the facts. It also
appears that they think the typical buyer is pretty upscale and lives
in a new developement somewhere and works in a downtown tower. Well,
it may be that those people have different commuting patterns than
others. But if they do, I really don't feel sorry for them.

So, if you're a hypothetical attorney in a downtown highrise and you
have to commute a hellatious distance to your new home in the new
subdivision, then so what. It doesn't bother me that you spend a lot
of time/money commuting. Get a smaller car. But it does bother the
home builder who may run out of clients if the situation gets too bad.
And the article is written from that persepective, for what its worth.

An alternative article might me "Home Builder too stupid to find sites
closer to where customers work". But urban is much harder than green
field, so there you go.


George Conklin wrote:
> "Jack May" > wrote in message
> . ..
> >
> > "Scott en Aztlán" > wrote in message
> > ...
> > >
> http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...ntid=742526&GT
> 1=8479
> > >
> > > Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that
> > > high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute
> > > prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live in
> > > central cities and create a push for more public transportation.
> >
> > Most of the jobs are in the suburbs not the central city. The statement
> > makes no sense.
> >
>
> Since when do newspaper reporters even try to understand FActs?
>
>
>
> > We have already been through the minimum price per gallon before there
> would
> > be a lot of people using transit. The minimum prices was $13 per gallon
> > with a lot of assumptions to push that number as low as possible.
> >
> > The real number is probably over $20 per gallon. At these prices the
> world
> > will be gushing with alternative fuels and even Hugh surpluses of oil.
> We
> > are already seen major increases in oil coming on line responding to $70
> per
> > barrel oil
> >
> > The writer also assumes that Government will not have to radically
> increase
> > transit fares if the price of gasoline goes way up. They will just pay
> for
> > the extra cost with the vast surpluses all local Governments have :-)
> > >
> > > City of the futu here, soon
> > > Gabriel already sees change in car-centric Los Angeles, where the
> > > commuter culture has for years pushed mile upon mile of city sprawl
> > > into neighboring towns and farmland. But now Gabriel says KB Home is
> > > leading the way to a new type of neighborhood.
> > >
> > > Once thought of as a first-home builder, KB in June launched KB Urban
> > > to develop high-density, mixed-use projects. The first such project
> > > will be a 2-million-square-foot complex of luxury hotels and private
> > > residences built in partnership with hotelier Marriott International
> > > and sports-and-entertainment company AEG, owner of L.A.'s Staples
> > > Center. This kind of development, Gabriel believes, will help make
> > > L.A. a denser, European-type central city. It is celebrated in a 2004
> > > film called "The End of Suburbia."
> >
> > The housing segment is selling land at this time, not acquiring it. Again
> > the writer is living in their on self fabricated fantasy world.
> >
> > The other fantasy world of the writer is that Government will pay for all
> > the large increases in fuel consumption for transit and not raise taxes or
> > fares. The magic world of Government having unlimited amounts of money
> > with no need to raise more money.
> >
> > And of course the transit fantasy people keep grasping at straws
> desperately
> > that their dying fantasy will some how magically be resurrected to rule
> the
> > earth again.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >

"Pat" > wrote in message
ups.com...


George Conklin wrote:
> "Jack May" > wrote in message
> . ..
> >
> > "Scott en Aztlán" > wrote in message
> > ...
> > >
>
http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...ntid=742526&GT
> 1=8479
> > >
> > > Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that
> > > high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute
> > > prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live in
> > > central cities and create a push for more public transportation.
> >
> > Most of the jobs are in the suburbs not the central city. The
statement
> > makes no sense.
> >
>
> Since when do newspaper reporters even try to understand FActs?
>
>
>
> > We have already been through the minimum price per gallon before there
> would
> > be a lot of people using transit. The minimum prices was $13 per
gallon
> > with a lot of assumptions to push that number as low as possible.
> >
> > The real number is probably over $20 per gallon. At these prices the
> world
> > will be gushing with alternative fuels and even Hugh surpluses of oil.
> We
> > are already seen major increases in oil coming on line responding to $70
> per
> > barrel oil
> >
> > The writer also assumes that Government will not have to radically
> increase
> > transit fares if the price of gasoline goes way up. They will just pay
> for
> > the extra cost with the vast surpluses all local Governments have :-)
> > >
> > > City of the futu here, soon
> > > Gabriel already sees change in car-centric Los Angeles, where the
> > > commuter culture has for years pushed mile upon mile of city sprawl
> > > into neighboring towns and farmland. But now Gabriel says KB Home is
> > > leading the way to a new type of neighborhood.
> > >
> > > Once thought of as a first-home builder, KB in June launched KB Urban
> > > to develop high-density, mixed-use projects. The first such project
> > > will be a 2-million-square-foot complex of luxury hotels and private
> > > residences built in partnership with hotelier Marriott International
> > > and sports-and-entertainment company AEG, owner of L.A.'s Staples
> > > Center. This kind of development, Gabriel believes, will help make
> > > L.A. a denser, European-type central city. It is celebrated in a 2004
> > > film called "The End of Suburbia."
> >
> > The housing segment is selling land at this time, not acquiring it.
Again
> > the writer is living in their on self fabricated fantasy world.
> >
> > The other fantasy world of the writer is that Government will pay for
all
> > the large increases in fuel consumption for transit and not raise taxes
or
> > fares. The magic world of Government having unlimited amounts of money
> > with no need to raise more money.
> >
> > And of course the transit fantasy people keep grasping at straws
> desperately
> > that their dying fantasy will some how magically be resurrected to rule
> the
> > earth again.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >

I think it was the builder giving the author the facts. It also
appears that they think the typical buyer is pretty upscale and lives
in a new developement somewhere and works in a downtown tower. Well,
it may be that those people have different commuting patterns than
others. But if they do, I really don't feel sorry for them.

So, if you're a hypothetical attorney in a downtown highrise and you
have to commute a hellatious distance to your new home in the new
subdivision, then so what. It doesn't bother me that you spend a lot
of time/money commuting. Get a smaller car. But it does bother the
home builder who may run out of clients if the situation gets too bad.
And the article is written from that persepective, for what its worth.

An alternative article might me "Home Builder too stupid to find sites
closer to where customers work". But urban is much harder than green
field, so there you go.

------

But the liberal crowd has just gotten done complaining that the good jobs
are in the suburbs and the poor now must commute to transit-poor suburbs to
find good jobs. So you theoretical lawyer would either be retired or have a
long reverse commute!!!

George Conklin wrote:
> "Pat" > wrote in message
> ups.com...
>
>
> George Conklin wrote:
> > "Jack May" > wrote in message
> > . ..
> > >
> > > "Scott en Aztlán" > wrote in message
> > > ...
> > > >
> >
> http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...ntid=742526&GT
> > 1=8479
> > > >
> > > > Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that
> > > > high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute
> > > > prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live in
> > > > central cities and create a push for more public transportation.
> > >
> > > Most of the jobs are in the suburbs not the central city. The
> statement
> > > makes no sense.
> > >
> >
> > Since when do newspaper reporters even try to understand FActs?
> >
> >
> >
> > > We have already been through the minimum price per gallon before there
> > would
> > > be a lot of people using transit. The minimum prices was $13 per
> gallon
> > > with a lot of assumptions to push that number as low as possible.
> > >
> > > The real number is probably over $20 per gallon. At these prices the
> > world
> > > will be gushing with alternative fuels and even Hugh surpluses of oil.
> > We
> > > are already seen major increases in oil coming on line responding to $70
> > per
> > > barrel oil
> > >
> > > The writer also assumes that Government will not have to radically
> > increase
> > > transit fares if the price of gasoline goes way up. They will just pay
> > for
> > > the extra cost with the vast surpluses all local Governments have :-)
> > > >
> > > > City of the futu here, soon
> > > > Gabriel already sees change in car-centric Los Angeles, where the
> > > > commuter culture has for years pushed mile upon mile of city sprawl
> > > > into neighboring towns and farmland. But now Gabriel says KB Home is
> > > > leading the way to a new type of neighborhood.
> > > >
> > > > Once thought of as a first-home builder, KB in June launched KB Urban
> > > > to develop high-density, mixed-use projects. The first such project
> > > > will be a 2-million-square-foot complex of luxury hotels and private
> > > > residences built in partnership with hotelier Marriott International
> > > > and sports-and-entertainment company AEG, owner of L.A.'s Staples
> > > > Center. This kind of development, Gabriel believes, will help make
> > > > L.A. a denser, European-type central city. It is celebrated in a 2004
> > > > film called "The End of Suburbia."
> > >
> > > The housing segment is selling land at this time, not acquiring it.
> Again
> > > the writer is living in their on self fabricated fantasy world.
> > >
> > > The other fantasy world of the writer is that Government will pay for
> all
> > > the large increases in fuel consumption for transit and not raise taxes
> or
> > > fares. The magic world of Government having unlimited amounts of money
> > > with no need to raise more money.
> > >
> > > And of course the transit fantasy people keep grasping at straws
> > desperately
> > > that their dying fantasy will some how magically be resurrected to rule
> > the
> > > earth again.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
> I think it was the builder giving the author the facts. It also
> appears that they think the typical buyer is pretty upscale and lives
> in a new developement somewhere and works in a downtown tower. Well,
> it may be that those people have different commuting patterns than
> others. But if they do, I really don't feel sorry for them.
>
> So, if you're a hypothetical attorney in a downtown highrise and you
> have to commute a hellatious distance to your new home in the new
> subdivision, then so what. It doesn't bother me that you spend a lot
> of time/money commuting. Get a smaller car. But it does bother the
> home builder who may run out of clients if the situation gets too bad.
> And the article is written from that persepective, for what its worth.
>
> An alternative article might me "Home Builder too stupid to find sites
> closer to where customers work". But urban is much harder than green
> field, so there you go.
>
> ------
>
> But the liberal crowd has just gotten done complaining that the good jobs
> are in the suburbs and the poor now must commute to transit-poor suburbs to
> find good jobs. So you theoretical lawyer would either be retired or have a
> long reverse commute!!!

I live in the sticks outside of Buffalo, so I don't have as much NYC or
LA or Chicago experience, but from what I've seen, people like
attorneys are like fish that like to school together. There are good
jobs in the suburbs, no doubt, but all of the hypothetical attorneys
are still in downtown NYC. They want to near each other, the courts,
etc. Aglomeration, I guess. There's just no prestige to being the
best attorney is Rockland County. In a perfect world, it would make
sense for a big law firm to pack up and move 100 miles north to Orange
County. They would have more housing for the buck, shorter commutes,
etc. etc. But this isn't a perfect world: it's New York.

"Pat" > wrote in message
ups.com...

George Conklin wrote:
> "Pat" > wrote in message
> ups.com...
>
>
> George Conklin wrote:
> > "Jack May" > wrote in message
> > . ..
> > >
> > > "Scott en Aztlán" > wrote in message
> > > ...
> > > >
> >
>
http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...ntid=742526&GT
> > 1=8479
> > > >
> > > > Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that
> > > > high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute
> > > > prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live
in
> > > > central cities and create a push for more public transportation.
> > >
> > > Most of the jobs are in the suburbs not the central city. The
> statement
> > > makes no sense.
> > >
> >
> > Since when do newspaper reporters even try to understand FActs?
> >
> >
> >
> > > We have already been through the minimum price per gallon before there
> > would
> > > be a lot of people using transit. The minimum prices was $13 per
> gallon
> > > with a lot of assumptions to push that number as low as possible.
> > >
> > > The real number is probably over $20 per gallon. At these prices the
> > world
> > > will be gushing with alternative fuels and even Hugh surpluses of oil.
> > We
> > > are already seen major increases in oil coming on line responding to
$70
> > per
> > > barrel oil
> > >
> > > The writer also assumes that Government will not have to radically
> > increase
> > > transit fares if the price of gasoline goes way up. They will just
pay
> > for
> > > the extra cost with the vast surpluses all local Governments have :-)
> > > >
> > > > City of the futu here, soon
> > > > Gabriel already sees change in car-centric Los Angeles, where the
> > > > commuter culture has for years pushed mile upon mile of city sprawl
> > > > into neighboring towns and farmland. But now Gabriel says KB Home is
> > > > leading the way to a new type of neighborhood.
> > > >
> > > > Once thought of as a first-home builder, KB in June launched KB
Urban
> > > > to develop high-density, mixed-use projects. The first such project
> > > > will be a 2-million-square-foot complex of luxury hotels and private
> > > > residences built in partnership with hotelier Marriott International
> > > > and sports-and-entertainment company AEG, owner of L.A.'s Staples
> > > > Center. This kind of development, Gabriel believes, will help make
> > > > L.A. a denser, European-type central city. It is celebrated in a
2004
> > > > film called "The End of Suburbia."
> > >
> > > The housing segment is selling land at this time, not acquiring it.
> Again
> > > the writer is living in their on self fabricated fantasy world.
> > >
> > > The other fantasy world of the writer is that Government will pay for
> all
> > > the large increases in fuel consumption for transit and not raise
taxes
> or
> > > fares. The magic world of Government having unlimited amounts of
money
> > > with no need to raise more money.
> > >
> > > And of course the transit fantasy people keep grasping at straws
> > desperately
> > > that their dying fantasy will some how magically be resurrected to
rule
> > the
> > > earth again.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
> I think it was the builder giving the author the facts. It also
> appears that they think the typical buyer is pretty upscale and lives
> in a new developement somewhere and works in a downtown tower. Well,
> it may be that those people have different commuting patterns than
> others. But if they do, I really don't feel sorry for them.
>
> So, if you're a hypothetical attorney in a downtown highrise and you
> have to commute a hellatious distance to your new home in the new
> subdivision, then so what. It doesn't bother me that you spend a lot
> of time/money commuting. Get a smaller car. But it does bother the
> home builder who may run out of clients if the situation gets too bad.
> And the article is written from that persepective, for what its worth.
>
> An alternative article might me "Home Builder too stupid to find sites
> closer to where customers work". But urban is much harder than green
> field, so there you go.
>
> ------
>
> But the liberal crowd has just gotten done complaining that the good jobs
> are in the suburbs and the poor now must commute to transit-poor suburbs
to
> find good jobs. So you theoretical lawyer would either be retired or have
a
> long reverse commute!!!

I live in the sticks outside of Buffalo, so I don't have as much NYC or
LA or Chicago experience, but from what I've seen, people like
attorneys are like fish that like to school together. There are good
jobs in the suburbs, no doubt, but all of the hypothetical attorneys
are still in downtown NYC. They want to near each other, the courts,
etc. Aglomeration, I guess. There's just no prestige to being the
best attorney is Rockland County.

Most attorneys do not practice criminal law, and in fact most do work
like wills and so forth and so on, even real estate closings.


In a perfect world, it would make
sense for a big law firm to pack up and move 100 miles north to Orange
County. They would have more housing for the buck, shorter commutes,
etc. etc. But this isn't a perfect world: it's New York.

NYC is a city built more on the medieval model than a modern industrial
city which started on an entirely different organizational principle than
did an old-fashioned sea port on an island.

"Pat" > wrote in message
ups.com...
I think it was the builder giving the author the facts. It also
appears that they think the typical buyer is pretty upscale and lives
in a new developement somewhere and works in a downtown tower. Well,
it may be that those people have different commuting patterns than
others. But if they do, I really don't feel sorry for them.

Listen to CNBC, the financial channel, sometimes. You will find the
financial experts are saying the opposite of what this article is saying.

Since I have some money in the stock market, I often turn on CNBC when I
wake up to get some feeling how good or bad the market is going to be for me
that day. This article is just way off base from what the analyst are
saying.

The analyst are from perfect, but they at least have to put money behind
what they say. The reporter probably has no involvement in the predictions.

"Jack May" > wrote in message
. ..
>
> "Pat" > wrote in message
> ups.com...
> I think it was the builder giving the author the facts. It also
> appears that they think the typical buyer is pretty upscale and lives
> in a new developement somewhere and works in a downtown tower. Well,
> it may be that those people have different commuting patterns than
> others. But if they do, I really don't feel sorry for them.
>
> Listen to CNBC, the financial channel, sometimes. You will find the
> financial experts are saying the opposite of what this article is saying.
>
> Since I have some money in the stock market, I often turn on CNBC when I
> wake up to get some feeling how good or bad the market is going to be for
me
> that day. This article is just way off base from what the analyst are
> saying.
>
> The analyst are from perfect, but they at least have to put money behind
> what they say. The reporter probably has no involvement in the
predictions.
>
>
>

Reporters are not well educated and usually report on what they want after
talking to 1-2 people who are self-selected to say what they want to hear in
the first place. Economic analysis is quite different from what 99% of
general reporters focus on.