Hybrids SUCK fuel in the real world, What a surprise...

http://www.freep.com/money/autorevie...e_20050203.htm

Gee in REAL world use they get almost the same mileage as the
conventional vehicles, at twice the price. What a bargain....

--
Steve W.



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Steve W. wrote:
>
> http://www.freep.com/money/autorevie...e_20050203.htm
>
> Gee in REAL world use they get almost the same mileage as the
> conventional vehicles, at twice the price. What a bargain....

From the article:
"Nobody really knows how much of the time drivers use the front
defroster or max AC. The best guess comes from Ford, which has
30-year-old research that says it's about 10 percent of the time
for all drivers in the United States."

I wonder how Ford came up with that? (assuming the article is
reliable and not a bunch of crock). Where I live the A/C is
on max from April to November whenever the vehicle is driven.

Steve W. wrote:

>http://www.freep.com/money/autorevie...e_20050203.htm
>
>Gee in REAL world use they get almost the same mileage as the
>conventional vehicles, at twice the price. What a bargain....

I used to average almost 30 MPG in mixed driving with my Corolla
automatic, and now my Prius gets about 40 MPG in the same driving, both
driven with the A/C was on almost all the time. And I didn't pay
anywhere close to twice the price for the Prius but more like $4,000
extra over a new Corolla or Matrix.

wrote:
>
> Steve W. wrote:
>
> >http://www.freep.com/money/autorevie...e_20050203.htm
> >
> >Gee in REAL world use they get almost the same mileage as the
> >conventional vehicles, at twice the price. What a bargain....
>
> I used to average almost 30 MPG in mixed driving with my Corolla
> automatic, and now my Prius gets about 40 MPG in the same driving, both
> driven with the A/C was on almost all the time. And I didn't pay
> anywhere close to twice the price for the Prius but more like $4,000
> extra over a new Corolla or Matrix.

If we assume a fairly typical 25,000 miles per year:

25,000mi @ 30mpg = 833 gallons

25,000mi @ 40mpg = 625 gallons

Annual gas savings = 208 gallons

@ $2/gallon recovery of the $4,000 premium = 9.62 years or 240,000
miles.

The published battery life expectancy is 150,000 miles so you will not
recover the $4,000 premium due to the high cost of replacing the
battery.

At $3.20/gallon you will recover the $4,000 premium just in time to
spend several thousand dollars more to replace the battery pack. The
replacement cost isn't listed, but if we assume it's at least the $3,000
I've heard before then you will essentially never show any savings at
all with the Prius.

What theoretical savings you get each time you fill up has to be put
aside to cover the battery replacement in about 6 years and the initial
$4,000 won't be recovered.

I'll also note that the $4,000 premium does not in any way reflect the
true cost difference with a conventional car, it is a highly subsidized
price. Even at full production levels the cost difference would be well
above $4,000.

You also have the issues of unknown reliability and increased labor cost
for repairs due to the increased complexity. Additionally from what I've
heard from those who have tried them, a Prius with 4 passengers will be
straining where a Corolla will do just fine so not only is there no cost
savings, there is also a loss in capability.

Pete C.

> The published battery life expectancy is 150,000 miles so you will not
> recover the $4,000 premium due to the high cost of replacing the
> battery.
>
> At $3.20/gallon you will recover the $4,000 premium just in time to
> spend several thousand dollars more to replace the battery pack. The
> replacement cost isn't listed, but if we assume it's at least the $3,000
> I've heard before then you will essentially never show any savings at
> all with the Prius.

In CA, due to the emission's law, the battery is covered for 10 years so you
get a free one should it fail. Also, 150,000 mi. is about the time to get
rid of the car anyway - mine go around 120,000 mi. in 10 years due to normal
wear and tear items that add up making it worthless to repair with respect
to depreciation costs. That $4000 difference "may" be the insurance for the
new battery from Toyota. So far, one has yet to fail based on the 13,000
members signed in on the Prius forums. If they did fail on the beta
versions of the car (I still believe the car is a beta version although they
seem to be holding up well), that would be very difficult for Toyota to
recover from. You should take that battery out of your equation since very
few will keep any car 10 years.

Regarding acceleration they are as fast, and maybe slightly faster, as the
Camry. No auto transmission and the thing just keeps building speed -
quick.

Still, I'm a skeptic and having a hard time dealing with the hybrids
although I've test ridden them and they perform very well and are feature
loaded. I was rather surprised as to the high insurance payments on it
though, equivalent to a larger Dodge pickup which were about $20 difference
(AAA quoted me $1194/yr.).

B~

In the amount of time it will take for the battery to break the price
might be significantly less (in inflation adjusted dollars) than it is
today. It might also be little better.

"B. Peg" wrote:
>
> > The published battery life expectancy is 150,000 miles so you will not
> > recover the $4,000 premium due to the high cost of replacing the
> > battery.
> >
> > At $3.20/gallon you will recover the $4,000 premium just in time to
> > spend several thousand dollars more to replace the battery pack. The
> > replacement cost isn't listed, but if we assume it's at least the $3,000
> > I've heard before then you will essentially never show any savings at
> > all with the Prius.
>
> In CA, due to the emission's law, the battery is covered for 10 years so you
> get a free one should it fail. Also, 150,000 mi. is about the time to get
> rid of the car anyway - mine go around 120,000 mi. in 10 years due to normal
> wear and tear items that add up making it worthless to repair with respect
> to depreciation costs. That $4000 difference "may" be the insurance for the
> new battery from Toyota. So far, one has yet to fail based on the 13,000
> members signed in on the Prius forums. If they did fail on the beta
> versions of the car (I still believe the car is a beta version although they
> seem to be holding up well), that would be very difficult for Toyota to
> recover from. You should take that battery out of your equation since very
> few will keep any car 10 years.
>
> Regarding acceleration they are as fast, and maybe slightly faster, as the
> Camry. No auto transmission and the thing just keeps building speed -
> quick.
>
> Still, I'm a skeptic and having a hard time dealing with the hybrids
> although I've test ridden them and they perform very well and are feature
> loaded. I was rather surprised as to the high insurance payments on it
> though, equivalent to a larger Dodge pickup which were about $20 difference
> (AAA quoted me $1194/yr.).
>
> B~

A battery is not an emissions component and as such would not be covered
by the 6yr/60,000 mile emissions coverage in every other state. CA is
probably the only place in the world that would have such an absurd law.

I'll also note that at the 25,000 mi/yr rate I based my calculations on
the battery life is 6 years, not 10.

The $4,000 premium also does not reflect the real cost difference and
after "beta" as you put it the real cost will have to be factored into
the price.

You comment about "in 10 years due to normal wear and tear items that
add up making it worthless to repair with respect to depreciation costs"
is only applicable to the small to econo-box segment. In other segments
of the market with reasonable maintenance a vehicle can readily last
twice that time/mileage without excessive repair costs.

On the performance issue, first and foremost the Prius does indeed have
an automatic transmission, otherwise it would have no was to get the
power produced by the gas engine to the pavement. None of the current
hybrids have a 100% electric drive with an IC genset, diesel-electric
trains operate that way.

In the Prius and other hybrids the electric motor operates in parallel
with the IC engine to provide the torque that the IC engine is lacking.
This works up to a point, once you climb enough hills to exhaust the
batteries charge then you are in limp mode doing 5mph up the next hill
with your hazard flashers on. If you drive a hybrid in a prairie
somewhere it may well perform ok, try one in the hilly northeast and
you'll find that they don't do well.

Pete C.

wrote:
>
> In the amount of time it will take for the battery to break the price
> might be significantly less (in inflation adjusted dollars) than it is
> today. It might also be little better.

That may well be true, however it still leaves the six years to recover
the $4,000 up front premium before spending another significant chunk of
money if you wish to continue operating the vehicle. The battery price
may well come down, perhaps $1,500 instead of $3,000 but that is still a
far cry from the sub $100 battery in a conventional car (similar life
expectancy).

Additionally if the vehicles were priced to the true cost of production,
even at a full production capacity the cost premium will be a good deal
more than the subsidized $4,000.

The bottom line is that with current technology, the fuel savings is
marginal at a couple hundred gallons per year and the cost savings is
entirely nonexistent.

Those that believe they are saving money when they put less gas in their
hybrid cars are deluding themselves, they paid for the gas they are not
using upfront. Those that believe they are hurting OPEC need to realize
that the 200 gallons of fuel they don't use is less than a drop in the
bucket.

Pete C.

B. Peg wrote:

>>The published battery life expectancy is 150,000 miles so you will not
>>recover the $4,000 premium due to the high cost of replacing the
>>battery.
>>
>>At $3.20/gallon you will recover the $4,000 premium just in time to
>>spend several thousand dollars more to replace the battery pack. The
>>replacement cost isn't listed, but if we assume it's at least the $3,000
>>I've heard before then you will essentially never show any savings at
>>all with the Prius.
>
>
> In CA, due to the emission's law, the battery is covered for 10 years so you
> get a free one should it fail. Also, 150,000 mi. is about the time to get
> rid of the car anyway - mine go around 120,000 mi. in 10 years due to normal
> wear and tear items that add up making it worthless to repair with respect
> to depreciation costs.

120,000 miles is less than half the average mileage on the cars I
currently own! The lowest mileage car is a '69 muscle car with about
160,000 miles on it, but the newest vehicle I own (1993) has 220,000
miles on it and is my wife's daily car.

I like the hybrid concept, but its not quite "soup" for my uses yet.

who told you about "twice the price"? Current Ford EscpaeHybrid is not much
than conventional.